Dial Square's Soccer

[DialSquares]

2009 Record 1-0 +69

Scotland Premier League
Motherwell v Hearts
under 2.5 -144

past 10 matches H2h with Motherwell being the home team have all gone under 2.5. Both teams are 60% under teams. Past 6 games Motherwell have scored 4 goals and Hearts 5. Strong draw possibility and i don't see a 2-2 type game. A late winner may kill this bet but stats/form point to an under.

 

[pezgordo]

Dial Squares,

I am interested in learning more about soccer and how best to cap it. If possible, could you PM me w/ your contact information?

Thank you.

 

[DialSquares]

no real secret to how i cap soccer. I generally look at the following stats:

past 10 games - in league play only
past 5 home games or away games
past h2h games (as many as i can)
past 10 H2H games home team v away team
past 6 games formwise.
-other stats that might come up now and then,
-if key players are on goal form as well. Guys like Toni/Totti/Ronaldo/once again Messi can really strengthen/weaken a play simply because of their own form. (not a vital stat for me but one I do think about)

--whenever possible - team news/weather report/future games/starting lineups. If a team has a big game next or a midweek UEFA game then generally no bet or bet against that team. As far as H2h the stats generally can be deceiving (of course) but when the historical stats show a 100% or near 100% record then it should be taken into consideration.

Other than the major leagues of europe (excluding Spain) I never take the road team unless it is an AH0 aka draw no bet. No cup plays (at least never big).

And finally, deep inside my head is a little bit of intuition/common sense about a line or play. For instance, if all the stats lead one way and the odds reflect another then it becomes a no-play for me. I am certain the line makers have more info/stats about a certain game and are never really wrong. And very late line movement at european based books is vital for me. It makes posting plays near impossible.

So at night I will do some research for pretty much every european game i can (I can only read English, French and German - but it gets by with other leagues) and the ones that show promise I find the odds for about 10 major books in Europe as well as Pinnacle. When I wake up I will go back to the team website/other places for overnight (for me) news and look at line movement. If the line moves in favour of my play and the news/weather is good then i'll play it for my normal amount. 3-5 mins before game time if there is further line movement and the starting lineups seem to favour the play then a will bet a little more. Live in play to either hedge what appears to be a bad play or to further add to what's been played helps in the long run as well.

One more thing: follow a hot or consistent capper on here (or on more soccer dominate forums). But unless you follow the game closely and don't mind looking at stats or reading teams website I don't think betting on soccer would be wise. Soccer really has to be your life outside of family/work. No time to look at hockey/baseball/American football etc...it's not a 9-5 job mind you but it probably could be. If you bet blind (at least in my opinion) it is much worst when it loses.

---sorry for the length.

--now if only i could tell when stoppage time goals and red cards will happen i'd be set.

damn my arm is sore :lol:

 

[pezgordo]

Dial Square,

Thank you for the detailed response/information. My soccer experience has been limited to World Cup & Euro Cup competition. Maybe it has just been luck, but I have been very successful selecting sides, totals and even futures (I had Italy at 11-1 in 2006 WC) in the last two World Cups and the 2008 Euro (13-6 overall including Spain at I believe +215 before the competition started).

My idea was/is to start researching/capping the upcoming World Cup qualifying matches and also the UEFA Champions League matches. As you stated, to do each league in each country would be a full time job and I already spend a considerable time capping college football.

Where do you gather your information? What else could you suggest that might help me in getting ready for the World Cup qualifiers and the UEFA?

Do you cap all the European Leagues? Do you cap South America?

Thank you again for the detailed information and anything else you can think of would be appreciated. My email address is: trtolman@qwest.net

 

[DialSquares]

2009 Record 2-0 +125

French Ligue 2
Boulogne - Lens
over 2 goals -105
definitely risky playing overs in French 2 as it is an under league. I would not play the over 2.5 if the over 2 is not available. Lens is as over friendly as a French 2 team is with 50% overs. Boulogne only hittin 33% over but it is the home/away overs that has me thinking there is at least 2 goals. Boulogne 5 overs and 3 unders at home and Lens 5 overs 3 unders on the road. Looking closer Boulogne's 8 home games has 6 2 or more goal games and 2 1-0 games. Lens road games 6 2 or more goal games and 2 1-0 games. Formwise past 6 games Boulogne 9Gf 9Ga and Lens 7Gf 7Ga.

This game looks like both teams capable of scoring 1 each and if there is a winner then perhaps the over will hit. Push looks decent enough of a chance to risk the bet. But as i said, despite the great odds for over 2.5 I don't think i'd play that. Game really does have a 1-1 look to it - although the draw doesn't fit statwise.

Gl - if you play this - over in French 2 - what i am doing>? :lol:

 

[ebecker]

I actually like the over as well. But I also think lens is going to take this one considering their record v boulogne's. here's to hoping for a 2-1 score!

 

[ebecker]

PS i've got some cash to burn with my 6-0 record in soccer '09 so maybe that's how i'm rationalizing this risky play!

 

[DialSquares]

2-1 score works for me - esp a 2-1 after 15 mins. I hope the pitch condition do not play too big of a factor (excuse already loaded )

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/alexis11

stream for the game if you don't mind the french.....and remember i am 1/4 french.

 

[ebecker]

thanks for the stream! i was just looking for it... haha

 

[DialSquares]

0-0 HT i was hoping for a push. 1-1 63rd minute and i will be dissapointed with the push...funny how this betting world of ours works.

 

[DialSquares]

nevermind 2-1 Boulgne....what a crazy 2nd half. French 2 overs i love em....never again...haha...j/k

 

[hcskip]

Good job, Dial - I missed getting this bet in by 5 minutes.

 

[ebecker]

well at least we made the over, haha. 2 more goals Lens!

 

[DialSquares]

thanks - it was looking like a typical French 2 game with a few chances and lack of finish. Not sure what happened in the second half but i'll take it.

Lens looks like they have goals in them but 2 before the finish my be trouble. 5 goals in french 2 has to be a once every 3 year thing...haha....rooting for you and lens though if that helps.

 

[ebecker]

thanks, but the shutup shot just ended it haha. great pick though! still up betting the same amount on both lens and the over

 

[ebecker]

very entertaining game- thanks for the insight dial

 

[DialSquares]

French 2
Montpellier v Tours
Montpellier -141
Hard to avoid the home v away record. Tours 1W 2D 6L on the road with the only win coming against 2nd last Nimes. Mont 5W 3D 1L at home losing the Metz early in the season (week 5). Formwise the nod goes to Mont...3W 3D in past 6 outscoring opponents 12-4.

Vannes OC v Nimes
Vannes OC -109
The big reason for this bet is that Vannes needs the 3 points to further separate themselves from relegation. nimes is just the team to do that too. Vannes sits 9th 5 points clear of relegation, Nimes 19th with 13 and looking like a relegation team. H2H Vannes 3-0-0 vs Nimes. Vannes' form is brutal so it does make me reconsider the bet but very recent form is W-D so it may be that they have turned their season back around. In any case, it is a bet against nimes as much as a bet for Vannes. And Vannes 1 lost at home whereas Nimes 1 win on the road. This game has a draw possibility for sure but in the end I think the home team should prevail.

I was leaning towards Bastia pk -0.5 -138 and over 2 -157 in the Montpellier game.

I really like the montpellier bet and somewhat Vannes but bet both the same amount. If you're only looking for one game it would be montpellier.

 

[ebecker]

any idea where i can find some live streams for these games?

 

[DialSquares]

no link today - at least i can't find one. Watching the live in play thingy over at bet365.com. 1-1 37th minute in the mont game. Was 1-0 bad guys. Wish i took the over 2 in the end but the conditions said "pour" and the weather's been shit in france....they should try and play soccer in northern ontario right now...hahaha

hopefully we will have a second half like yesterday in our favour - at least us over guys yesterday

 

[ebecker]

yeah i can't find one either- let's hope for good results!